It's not the best of times, nor the worst. But the latest data is a tale of two of U.S. economies.

From a record-high level in September 2018 of 61.3%, manufacturing activity has plunged. In July, manufacturing activity slipped further, to 51.2%, according to the newly released monthly survey data of purchasing managers from the Institute of Supply Management.

This data series is designed to signal a recession when it falls to less than 50%. At 51.2%, the manufacturing economy inched closer to indicating a recession could be on the horizon.