Despite a 1.3% decline in September, the survey of small-business owner optimism, conducted and indexed by the National Federal of Independent Business monthly since 1986, remains high by historical standards. That's a strong positive fundamental amid a long list of uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's next move, trade war with China, pending impeachment of President Trump, European weakness, Brexit, and an inverted yield curve.

Of a sample of 5,000 small-business owners, the 603 usable responses returned showed a decline to 101.8, a 1.3% drop from August's reading of 103.1, according to the NFIB's release on Tuesday.

Small businesses create 60% of new jobs, and a recession is highly unlikely when business-owners are confident. Business owner sentiment impacts wage gains, investment, and jobs. In the long arc of its 42-year history, September's drop was nothing like the collapse in confidence preceding previous recessions.